Beware of Messianic Visions!

collective folly flying in the face of a poly-crisis world...

The emerging 'poly-crisis world' is revealing many big faults in the way we have come to be, as the dominant species on earth. The coming together of multiple crises upon us, created by us - of climate change, overshoot, energy, loss of habitat (exodus), rising fear and violence coupled with anger. A new world order is in the making yet highly contrary and conflicting from what was envisioned (and planned) earlier. My point of view is of an outsider's. An alien living in Europe, which is heralding a much problematic ‘green colored’ future. Why it seems like a grand disaster in the making, and it’s not the first time so…

The prelude-
Lets take a detour, to frame the context of my view in a global sense (bare with me). The period 1810 to 1910 (sometimes referred as post-enlightenment) saw the rise of "messianic visions" of a better world for human beings. These visionaries proposed (and ignited) radical new ideas like democracy, nationalism, anti-colonialism, anarchism, human rights, etc aimed at all races, religions and languages. These visionaries were all based in Europe and Russia, given that the corresponding age was also the apex of  European imperial power. The prominent ones include Tolstoy, Goethe, Karl Marx, Nietzsche, Herbert Spencer, Pushkin, Adam Mickiewicz, Tomasso Marinetti and Alexi Tocqueville to name just a few. Their enlightened visions and texts manifested as ‘global thought detonators’ - stirring up deep sentiments within common people across the world, writers, artists, intellectuals and future leaders.

Whole new possibilities were opening up globally. New basis for challenging aristocracy, new methods of rebellion, new doctrines, new politics and prophecies, all aimed at  common people, anticipating freedom, peace, a better life and a better world. A new world order was on it’s way! they all trumpeted… Let us skip to early 20th century, as certain "messianic visions" were captured (and rapidly subverted) by another set of historic figures (or call them violent totalitarians) like Ataturk, Lenin, Stalin, Hitler, Mussolini, Franco, Salazar and also by the British, Japanese, French and American counterparts. A few decades later, these nations would all try to destroy each other, killing millions of innocent people. The peak of a super destructive civilization (as enlightened or not) is perhaps best etched on the two Atom bombs (Fat Man and Little Boy) that were dropped on the innocent children, women and men of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (August 1945). The world would never be the same again. Revisiting the famous words of Nietzsche's “Be very careful, lest in casting out your demons, you exorcise the best thing in you”.

1945-1965, post-enlightenment visions and political ideologies were also embraced by leaders of new nations like India, China, Egypt, Iran, Yugoslavia, Chile and many more across Africa and Latin America. By and by new demagogues, dictators and violent religious extremists also sponged off European enlightenment. The new nations, brimming with national pride, could play “catch up” with the West. However all such “global emancipation” was always situated within the sphere of western interest, intervention and control. Social engineering of human beings regardless of their previous identity, culture and traditions.

In his book ‘Seeing Like A State’ (Yale University Press) James C Scott examined how and why a majority of social engineering turned into disasters, in diverse regions of the world, such as India, Tanzania, Mexico, China, Indonesia and Russia to name a few. In the intro he states “…fiascos or tragic the disasters I have in mind. Collectivization in Russia, The Great Leap forward by China, The Green Revolutions of Mexico and India, the compulsory villagization of Tanzania, Mozambique and Ethiopia, are some of the great human tragedies of the twentieth century… Social engineering via many well-intended schemes to improve the human condition have mostly gone so tragically awry.”

Those who rebelled, were severely punished, evicted or plain murdered. Willy nilly, through the 2nd half of the 20th century, the euro-american vision (and it’s high modernism) would prevail as the global order. Eventually embraced pan-world by 99% people, as the de-facto form of governance, growth and progress. That global mapping of euro-centric social engineering, would be executed mostly via coercion, violence, propaganda, indoctrination or sheer brainwashing, translated into every major language over decades. Almost like a prelude for us, about the coming together of multiple crises.

The short age of exuberance!
The above timeline (1960-90) would be marked by unfolding civil wars, violence between nations, pogroms, rising inequality and peoples exodus from all four corners of the world. The period also marks a preposterous rise in global consumption, extraction, exuberance and emissions. Indeed a new world order would emerge by the 1990s. Aggressive militarized nation states, inter-competing for resources, energy, markets, always jostling for temporary global domination. Coinciding with rising levels of nationalism, racism, fear and anger across the world. Ironic is the steady rise of violence against women and children across rich and poor nations, all along the age of exuberance and globalization. At the turn of 2010, humanity would be facing a set of conditions similar (but much worse) to 1910-1920. The age of exuberance (1970-2000) was coming to an end, however globally ignored. Clearly made worse because of climate change, global warming, a vastly depleted habitat and four times the number of people on earth. The poly-crisis world was rapidly catching up on us, with millions of disenfranchised people (of every skin color) angrier by the day! In hindsight, so much for believing and executing a set of visions, which unilaterally served us so poorly.

As explained by Pankaj Mishra in his book The Age Of Anger (2019) : “…today alienated radicals from allover the world flock to join movements that are most often predestined to be violent, racist, religious or nationalist. Conventional warfare has been dwarfed by the insurgent and the counter insurgent - bespoke morally awash news - wars based on economics, cyber infiltration, surveillance, social media and misinformation. The world is besieged by a set of demagogues, trans-nationally pimping their power in America, China, India, Brazil, Turkey, Russia, Venezuela, Italy, Iran, Israel, Egypt and many other nations, however eerily similar in ideology to those who rose from Europe at the beginning of the 20th century”. A hundred years later are we back to square one or is it something way worse? Many revolutions past and still the new leaders (wicked demagogues) are conjuring preposterous visions for us. Waving blueprints and mantras, of resuscitated glory (“Make America Great Again”) or of future world power (“Make In India”) or neo-tribalism (“Italy and Italians First!”)

permanence of inequality and violence -
That great ideas (or visions) that proffer to serve humanity, can also be captured and subverted, by the 1% (ruling order) and by the old structures of oppression which have held the majority of humans down, always at the receiving end for eons. In his book ‘The Great Leveler: Violence and the History of Inequality (2017)’ Walter Schiedel explains the paradox of our age, with humor. “In 2015, the richest 62 persons on the planet owned as much private wealth as the poorer 50% of humanity = more than 3.7 billion people. If they decided to go on a field trip together, they would comfortably fit into a large bus. The previous year, 85 billionaires were needed to clear that threshold, fitting into a double-decker bus. And not so long ago in 2010, no fewer 398 billionaires together would offset the assets of the global 50% - a billionaires gathering would have required a convoy of vehicles or a typical Airbus 320…” You get the point. Inequality and violence have always been inextricably linked, throughout the history of civilizations. Through the ages, of ancient religions, empires, colonialism, enlightenment, industrial revolution, democracy, science and the current Anthropocene.

The permanence of inequality and violence has also shaped many messianic visions, which rocked the world back then and as of now. However anthropocentric that we are, forces like planetary boundaries, biophysical limits, feedback loops, overshoot and collapse, together shapes our current reality as well as incoming future. Not deals, not visions, not slogans and hashtags, not magic technology or miraculous blueprints. Most definitely not by the billionaire class and the state.

“We are the champions my friend. And we will keep on fighting till the end…”
(Freddy Mercury, Queen)

Gaia’s revenge!
More and more people are waking up to the planetary emergency, and as a consequence we are yet again brimming with visions, of salvation and the future. The near term future, as seen by hard science appears to be increasingly problematic or at times forsaken. Scientists, experts, writers, researchers and visionaries of the day are gushing forth with breakthrough revelations, facts and stories. Common people in all continents feel “Gaia’s revenge” on a daily basis. Children and teenagers are most prone to climate anxiety and panic, with a future that seems bankrupt. On course towards a +3 degree world, spiraling out of control. Climate headlines are eclipsing economic, political and cultural verbiage. We are also being coerced into various types of "paradigm shifts". Green New Deals, Decarbonization of the planet, Net Zero World, etc etc. Big revelations, big changes, big fixes, big sacrifices, big contradictions... Indeed overshoot leads to collapse. Indeed less can be more. Indeed our given privilege (or the lack of) always divides us. Indeed we are on a collision course with nature. Indeed degrowth is an option. Indeed we must leave fossil fuels behind. Indeed we have to reduce CO2 emissions everyday! Indeed we are bound to the biophysical limits of the planet. Indeed nature always bats last! As a species, we could first be more rational.

All the amazing science, facts, revelations, foresight, empathy and care shown by the body of scientists, researchers, writers, activists, the protectors, indigenous peoples, tree-huggers etc etc adds up to a great shift in the making. Utmost respect to the resilience, hope and resistance of the billions of poor people across the world, who stand to suffer the most in the coming decades. We as a species are in great danger again! Like we were earlier and almost destroyed each other.

If we are trying to find a path or way out of this global poly-crisis, it is perhaps not to be found in a singular solution (not based on one enlightened vision). A global re-engineering of civilization and society will lead us to new failures, to totalitarian states and widespread violence that has marked every century in the last 5,000 years of various not-so-great civilizations (they all collapsed). That top-down system does not work anymore, never did without the help of violent engineering and many botched visions!

“Worldmaking” on a personal or collective basis-
Perhaps we navigate the near-term future, unfolding as we speak, via multiple ideologies, multiple interventions, multiple loyalties, leading to multiple outcomes. Transformations matter, however small or big, poor or rich, scientific or spiritual, radical or passive, x or y. Because we live in multiple realities with different capacities and beliefs, hence our idea of “saving the planet” or leading “better lives” cannot be universal or framed by someone else. Cannot be forged by the powers and institutions which rule the current world. Beware of the messianic visions, of green colored futurism, those who warn us of incoming hell and climate fury, while proffering a clean green passage to heaven!

“…let us not take the ‘highway to hell’ but let’s earn the clean ticket to heaven.” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission

F**K that clean ticket to nowhere! Instead, we invest in “worldmaking”. Transitions on a personal or collective basis. The universal freedom and amnesty to understand and empathize first, to choose or reject later. Making it work or not, then becomes a matter of our ability to adapt, our ability to remain autonomous. Our ability to act outside coercive violent engineering and messianic visions. Along the way, we may acquire the necessary will (and skill) to protect our only home, the living planet (or what remains of it).

A poetry of predicament.

Time to Fly
by Ruth Padel

You go because you heard a cuckoo call.

You go because you've met someone, you made a vow, there are no more grasshoppers. You go because the cold is coming, spring is coming, soldiers are coming: plague, flood, an ice age, a new religion, a new idea.

You go because the world rotates, because the world is changing and you've lost the key. You go because you have the kingdom of heaven in your heart. Or the kingdom of hell, has taken over someone else's heart 🥺